Government funds for nuclear seen capped at 4 bln pounds
* Potential operators shy away from fears
of spiralling costs
* Analysts see nuclear entry cost at 140
pounds a MWh
* Current spot price is below 50 pounds a
MWh
By John McGarrity
LONDON, Nov 7 (Reuters) - Britain's nuclear power
generation future may be at risk as the list of potential operators shrinks due
to concerns about the high costs of entry.
The British government wants to build
around 10 nuclear power
stations by 2025,
which it says are necessary to keep the lights on in future decades, reduce
dependence on foreign gas and meet tougher carbon targets.
But persuading potential operators to
invest in nuclear generation could involve guaranteeing minimum power prices far
above what cash-strapped government departments and households would be willing
to pay, analysts said.
"The rewards from nuclear are likely to be
far below what companies would require to justify this level of investment. The
risks are enormous," said Tom Burke, a consultant with environment and energy
advisory E3G and former adviser to the British government on energy
policy.
The Emirates Nuclear Energy Corporation
(ENEC) is in talks with Japanese conglomerate Hitachi about taking a share of
the Horizon nuclear project, which last week was sold by E.ON and RWE after the
German utilities cited unacceptably high costs of building new plants.
Hitachi this week has started considering
which other potential operators it could approach for the Horizon nuclear
plants, a company spokeswoman said.
Analysts say that ENEC would not be an
optimal partner since it so far has no experience in operating a nuclear plant
itself. The first of its Korean-built reactors is expected to come online in
2017.
Sweden's Vattenfall, which runs reactors
in Germany and Sweden, previously stated its interest in UK
nuclear operations, but the company told Reuters it had no plans of investing in
the Horizon project.
"Vattenfall has no plans for nuclear power
operations in the UK. Our activities there focus on renewable energy (offshore
and onshore wind) and R&D (wave power)," a Vattenfall spokesman
said.
Exelon, the largest U.S. nuclear operator,
also said it was not interested in the UK nuclear market.
HIGH COST OF MARKET ENTRY
Analysts say the cost of market entry for
new nuclear power plants is around 140 pounds per megawatt-hour (MWh), which is
comparable to offshore wind power parks.
The current price for wholesale
electricity is around 50 pounds per MWh.
Offshore wind benefits from generous
government subsidies, but Britain has ruled out giving subsidies to investors in
the nuclear industry.
"To put money into UK nuclear would be
crazy," said Dominic Nash, a utilities analysts at London-based investment bank
Liberum Capital.
Energy Fair, a research group of energy
economists opposed to nuclear, said in a report last month that the true cost of
nuclear could even be over 200 pounds per MWh once "hidden subsidies" are taken
into account.
The research group said these would
include government allocations of public money to limit its liability for
accidents, offset the cost of nuclear waste and decommission power
stations.
For investors in Britain's nuclear
industry, the main problem is the amount the government can allocate from higher
retail energy
tariffs to offset the development costs of Britain's nuclear plant
fleet.
E3G's Burke said that allocation would be
capped around 4 billion pounds ($6.4 billion) by 2015, while the costs of
nuclear construction
could rise to over 12 billion a year by the mid-2020s.
Utilities such as France's EDF Energy,
which operates Britain's biggest nuclear power plant park and plans to build
several new reactors, are seeking safeguards against big cost overruns.
The government's energy
bill, which is
expected to go to parliament later this month, may include details on the
minimum nuclear generators can charge, which could give more certainty to
investors. But the legislation is likely to be subject to amendments, Energy
Minister John Hayes told a parliamentary committee this week.
It is difficult for any business ... when its core business in its home market... goes away.
ReplyDeleteSuch is the fate of Hitachi, which explains the desperate act of purchasing Horizon.
This will be a money pit for Hitachi. If I was in their position, I would have sought commercial guarantees from either the former owners or the UK govt that if the development does not go ahead then the purchase price would be reduced.
But what do I know ?